Why lumpsum wins on average
Markets rise more often than they fall, so money invested earlier sees more up-days. A well-known Vanguard study found that investing a lumpsum right away beat spreading the same amount over 12 months in roughly two-thirds of past periods, by a few percent on average. The reason is simple. With a SIP, part of your money sits in cash for months earning little, and it misses the growth the lumpsum captures from day one.
Why a SIP is still the right default for most people
The lumpsum edge assumes you have a lumpsum. Most people invest from a salary, so a SIP is not a strategy choice. It is the only option, and a good one. It builds discipline, takes away the urge to time the market, and means you are never the investor who put all your savings in the week before a 30% market drop. The choice that limits regret and the choice that earns the most on average are not always the same.
The honest tie-breaker: inflation and what the money is really worth
Whichever you pick, the total savings you see is a future-value number. Over 20 to 30 years, inflation can cut its buying power in half. The comparison that actually matters is not 'SIP savings vs lumpsum savings'. It is 'what those savings are worth today vs your real goal'. Set your target in today's money first, then pick the way of investing that gets you there given your cashflow.